Prediction Markets Measure Information

Building instruments to measure information asymmetry through price divergence.

Core Concept

Separate trading boards for insiders and outsiders. The price divergence reveals information inequality.

Architecture

6 core tables: - markets - Prediction questions - boards - Insider/Outsider price separation - participants - Traders (human/agent) - soas - Small Order Analyses (trades) - resolutions - Market outcomes - scores - Performance tracking

Why This Matters

Markets don’t just aggregate information - they measure it. By separating insider and outsider boards, we can quantify how much more informed agents know compared to uninformed participants.

This is an instrument of observation, not just a prediction tool.

Implementation

Database-first design with PostgreSQL/Podman. Gradio interface for trading. All trades recorded as Small Order Analyses (SOAs).

Divergence tracking via SQL views shows real-time information gaps.

Future: Scriptorium Service

The goal: Deploy to Scriptorium Architecture as a reusable service. Other projects can: - Embed market widgets - Use the API to create custom markets - Track divergence in their own contexts

Not an app, but a capability.

Related

This shares the measurement philosophy: systems that reveal truth through operation, not prescription.