Heuristics Machine

Public research commons combining prediction markets, wiki infrastructure, and automated research orchestration.

Core Insight

Not all questions are knowable the same way. The system distinguishes:

• Thucydidean - Measurable, verifiable (“Does this drug reduce blood pressure?”)
• Herodotean - Perspectival, cultural (“Is remote work better for creativity?”)
• Behind Closed Doors - Historically unknowable
• Subjective - First-person only

Different question types need different approaches. Forcing Thucydidean rigor on Herodotean questions creates false objectivity.

Architecture

• Crowd-funded research with democratic question prioritization
• Marimo reactive notebooks for reproducible analysis
• Prediction Markets Measure Information pricing research quality (not “truth”)
• 6-month donor embargo then public commons release
• Full provenance and forkable analyses

Philosophy

“Not trustless - trust through transparency.”

Markets don’t discover truth directly. For empirical questions they price methodology quality. For perspectival questions they price perspective value.

Status

Pre-alpha. Depends on market library stabilization.

Related

• Prediction Markets Measure Information - Market infrastructure
• Scriptorium Architecture - Scriptorium deployment target